Metodologija elektroenergetskoga planiranja pametnog grada uključivanjem stohastičkih i spoznajnih neodređenosti

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Smart city power planning methodology by including stochastic and knowledge uncertainties
• Author: Kristina Perić
• Mentor: Zdenko Šimić (mentor)
• Committee member: Zdenko Šimić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Energy and Power Systems); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

Istraživanjem su unaprjeđene konvencionalne metodologije analize elektroenergetskoga razvoja pametnoga (naprednoga) grada obzirom na očekivanu ekonomičnost, učinkovitost i ukupnu održivost uključivanjem neodređenosti relevantnih varijabli. Karakterizirane su stohastičke (aleatorne) i spoznajne (epistemične) neodređenosti relevantnih veličina prema dostupnim podacima i procjeni. Definirani su specifični modeli za karakteriziranje parametara neodređenosti ulaznih varijabli. Karakterizacijom su definirane statističke funkcije gustoće vjerojatnosti relevantnih parametara za proračun sa ili bez vremenske ovisnosti, ovisno o prirodi implementacije projekta i karakteristikama same varijable. Metodologija definira scenarije na temelju pretpostavki o načinu realizacije elektroenergetskih rješenja pametnoga grada glede financiranja, dinamike implementacije te uspješnosti funkcioniranja naprednih rješenja. Unaprijeđenom metodologijom analize koristi i troškova s karakterizacijom neodređenosti varijabli bolje je određena vjerojatnost uspješnosti realizacije planiranih aktivnosti pametnoga grada uz proračun mjera važnosti varijabli te njihov utjecaj na provedbu planiranih aktivnosti, a time i prioritet za smanjivanje rizika neuspješne realizacije naprednih rješenja. Razvijena metodologija primijenjena je na projektu pametnoga grada u gradu Ludbregu (napredna mjerna infrastruktura i komponente napredne mreže). Znanstveni doprinosi su: 1) Unapređenje konvencionalne metodologije elektroenergetskoga planiranja pametnoga grada (pametna distribucijska mreža i električni transport) uključivanjem neodređenosti i osjetljivosti relevantnih varijabli. 2) Karakteriziranje stohastičke i spoznajne neodređenosti varijabli matematičkog modela elektroenergetskoga planiranja pametnoga grada za dinamiku implementacije, ostvarivanje planiranih učinaka i prihvatljivost izvedenih naprednih rješenja. 3) Provjera primjenjivosti razvijene metodologije elektroenergetskoga planiranja pametnoga grada na primjeru konkretnog grada u Hrvatskoj te usporedba s odabranim konvencionalnim pristupom.

Abstract (english)

The research improved conventional methodologies of analysis of power planning and development of a smart city. It takes into account expected cost-effectiveness, efficiency and overall sustainability and uncertainty of relevant variables. The research plan includes characterization of stochastic (aleatory) and knowledge (epistemic) uncertainties of relevant parameters based on available data and assessment. Specific models have been defined to characterize the uncertainty of the parameters of the input variables. Characterization defines statistical probability density functions of the relevant parameters for the calculation ,with or without time-dependent part. It depends on the nature of project implementation and the characteristics of the variable itself. The methodology consists of defining scenarios based on assumptions about the manner of implementation of power solutions of the smart city in terms of financing, implementation dynamics and performance of advanced solutions. The improved methodology of cost-benefit analysis with the characterization of input variables uncertainty better determine the probability success of the planned activities of a smart city. It would allow measuring of the importance of the variables and their impact on the implementation of planned activities, and thus a priority to reduce the risk of unsuccessful implementation of advanced solutions. The developed methodology was applied to the smart city project and the development of energy-efficient solutions in the city of Ludbreg by developing selected units (smart metering infrastructure and smart network components). Scientific contributions are: 1) Improving the conventional methodology of smart city power planning (smart distribution network and electric transport) by including uncertainty and sensitivity of relevant variables. 2) Characterization of stochastic and knowledge uncertainty of variables of the mathematical model of smart city power planning for the dynamics of implementation, realization of planned effects and acceptability of derived advanced solutions. 3) Applicability check of the developed methodology of a smart cities power planning on the example of a city in Croatia and comparison to the conventional approach chosen.

• Keywords: Karakteriziranje neodređenosti parametara; Napredna metodologija planiranja; Elektroenergetsko planiranje; Planiranje pametnoga grada; Funkcija gustoće vjerojatnosti; Napredna mjerna infrastruktura; Ekonomska analiza koristi i troškova; stohastička i spoznajna neodređenost; Monte Carlo simulacija; Električni transport
• Keywords (english): Parameter uncertainty characterization; Advanced planning methodology; Power planning; Smart city planning; Probability density function; Smart metering infrastructure; Economic cost-benefit analysis; Stochastic and knowledge uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; Electric transport
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:330170
• Study programme: Title: Doctoral study programme "Electrical Engineering and Computing"; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti)
• Catalog URL: http://lib.fer.hr/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=52193
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 181 str.
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2022-02-10 10:38:06