Analytical Method for Forecasting of Telecommunications Service Life-Cycle Quantitative Factors

doctoral thesis

• Title (croatian): Analitički postupak predviđanja kvantitativnih čimbenika životnog vijeka telekomunikacijske usluge
• Author: Mladen Sokele
• Mentor: Branko Mikac (mentor)
• Mentor: Luiz Moutinho (komentor); strani drzavljanin: Nije dostupno
• Committee member: Ignac Lovrek (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Branko Mikac (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Luiz Moutinho (član povjerenstva); strani drzavljanin: Nije dostupno
• Committee member: Vlasta Hudek (član povjerenstva); MBZ: 108522
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Telecommunications); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2009-06-10, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

The forecasting of telecommunications services techno-economic indicators for business planning purposes has become increasingly significant, especially for telecommunications equipment manufacturers and telecom operators. The scope of Thesis was the research and development of the analytical method for forecasting of telecommunications service life-cycle quantitative factors. The analytical forecasting method was based on the modelling of known parts of certain telecommunications service's life cycle, with the purpose of their extrapolation on its unknown life cycle interval. Developed models, which form parts of the analytical method, are based on quantitative time series forecasting with ability to accept external judgementally determined variables. Moreover, auxiliary parameters are introduced in models to enable adjusting of model to the specific practical requirements. It has been found that the Bass model with explanatory parameters is optimal for forecasting of new service market adoption. In the case of existing service, developed Universal Model for Successive Segments is the optimal balance of flexibility and simplicity. Procedure for direct assessment of logistic model sensitivity to uncertainty of input data has been developed and tested. In addition, models for forecasting of revenue elements have been analysed and developed.

Abstract (croatian)

Predviđanje tehno-ekonomskih indikatora telekomunikacijskih usluga posebno je važno pri poslovnom planiranju proizvođača telekomunikacijske opreme i telekom operatore. Svrha disertacije bila je istraživanje i razvoj analitičke metode za predviđanje kvantitativnih čimbenika životnog vijeka telekomunikacijskih usluga. Analitička metoda za prognoziranje temelji se na modeliranju postojećih segmenata životnog vijeka telekomunikacijske usluge, s ciljem ekstrapolacije na intervale životnog vijeka u budućnosti. Modeli, koji su dijelovi analitičke metode, razvijeni su po principima kvantitativnog prognoziranja vremenskih nizova s mogućnošću prihvata vanjskih varijabli koje su prognozirane temeljem procjena. Dodatno, pomoćni parametri uvedeni su u modele kako bi omogućili prilagodbu istih specifičnim praktičnim potrebama. Za modeliranje i prognoziranje rasta nove usluge na tržištu, Bassov model s eksplanatornim parametrima pokazao se kao najučinkovitiji. Za slučaj postojećih usluga, razvijen je univerzalni model za uzastopne segmente životnog vijeka usluge koji predstavlja optimum u fleksibilnosti i jednostavnosti. Razvijen je i testiran postupak za izravnu procjenu osjetljivosti logističkog modela na nesigurnost ulaznih podataka. U nastavku su analizirani i razvijeni modeli za predviđanje elemenata prihoda.

• Keywords: quantitative forecasting methods; service life cycle segments; Bass model with explanatory parameters; uncertainty of forecasted market capacity; composite growth models; market share modelling; Markov chains based on diffusion growth; pricing models
• Keywords (croatian): kvantitativne metode za predviđanje; segmenti životnog vijeka usluge; Bassov model s eksplanatornim parametrima; nesigurnost prognoziranog kapaciteta tržišta; složeni modeli rasta; modeliranje tržišnih udjela; Markovljevi lanci temeljeni na difuzijskom rastu; modeli tarifiranja
• Language: english
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:735764
• Project: Number: 036-0362027-1640; Title: UPRAVLJANJE MREŽOM I USLUGAMA TEMELJENO NA ZNANJU; Leader: Dragan Jevtić; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: MZOS; Funding stream: ZP
• Study programme: Title: Doctoral study programme "Electrical Engineering and Computing"; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti)
• Catalog URL: https://lib.fer.hr/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=33444
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 130 str.
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2020-04-06 07:43:21