Prognoza zagušenja za dan unaprijed prijenosne elektroenergetske mreže

master's thesis

• Title (english): Day-ahead congestion forecast for power transmission network
• Author: Mihaela Stipetić
• Mentor: Ivica Pavić (mentor)
• Committee member: Ivica Pavić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Viktor Milardić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Božidar Filipović-Grčić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-07-11, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering

Abstract

Ovaj rad sastoji se od 7 poglavlja. Prvo poglavlje čini uvod koji govori o problematici nedostatnih prijenosnih moći te važnosti prognoziranja zagušenja na interkonektivnim vodovima kako bi se ista mogla spriječiti ili ukloniti. Drugo poglavlje opisuje elektroenergetski sustav, njegovu podjelu i funkciju svakog njegovog dijela, objašnjava se važnost ravnoteže između proizvodnje i potrošnje te se na jednostavnom primjeru objašnjava tok snage kroz mrežu ovisan o Kirchhoffovim zakonima. U trećem poglavlju navedeni su modeli nadzemnog voda i kabela, transformatora, generatora i tereta te prikazani njihovi nadomjesni modeli koji se koriste u proračunima tokova snaga i kratkog spoja. U četvrtom poglavlju objašnjeni su modeli električnih mreža. U petom poglavlju opisana su dva najčešća proračuna tokova snaga, a to su Gauss-Seidel s y matricom te Newthon-Rapshon. Poznavanje ta dva proračuna omogućuje bolje razumijevanje proračuna izvršenog u programu PSS/E tijekom analize DACF datoteke. U šestom poglavlju opisane su osnove upravljanja zagušenjem i četiri faze upravljanja. U sedmom poglavlju opisana je sama procedura predviđanja zagušenja dan unaprijed i dan pregled hrvatskog elektroenergetskog sustava. Opisan je proračun napravljen na dvije DACF datoteke dobivene od HOPS-a. Mijenjanjem iznosa snage proizvodnje i tereta te uključivanjem i isključivanjem pojedinih 400 kV i 220 kV vodova pokazala se važnost ispravnog prognoziranja. I male promjene u proizvodnji, potrošnji ili topologiji mreže mogu uzrokovati preopterećenje na interkonektivnim vodovima. Također, oba primjera su pokazala da je hrvatski elektroenergetski sustav dovoljno robusan da i velike promjene ne uzrokuju zagušenje. Razlog leži u prijenosnim vodovima velike prijenosne moći. Uz predviđanje zagušenja dan unaprijed, sve više se radi na razvoju metode za predviđanje zagušenja sat unaprijed.

Abstract (english)

This thesis is composed of 7 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction that deals with transfer capacity insufficiency and the importance of forecasting congestions on cross-border power lines so could the said congestions be avoided or removed. The second chapter describes electric energy system, it is division and function of each part and the importance of balance between energy production and consumption is described, as well as power flow through the grid dependent on Kirchhoff’s laws on a simple example. Third chapter mentions models of overground power lines and cables, transformers, generators, and loads. It also shows their substitute models which are used in power flow and short circuit calculations. Fourth chapter concerns electrical grid models. Fifth chapter explains two most used power flow calculation methods, which are Gauss-Seidel with y matrix method and Newthon-Rapshon method. Knowing these two methods allows for better understanding of the calculation executed in in the PSS/E program during the analysis of DACF file. Sixth chapter describes basics of congestions management and four phases of management. Seventh chapter describes day ahead congestion forecasting procedure itself and daily overview of Croatian electric energy system. The calculations made in two DACF files acquired from HOPS are described. Changing the sum of power production and power loads as well as engaging and disengaging certain 400 kV and 220 kV lines shows the importance of accurate forecasting. Even small changes in production, consumption, or grid topology can cause overload on cross-border power lines. Furthermore, both examples showed that the Croatian electric energy system is robust enough so even greater changes do not cause congestion. The reason lies in large power capacity in transfer power lines. With day ahead congestion forecasting, more effort is given on developing an hour ahead congestion forecasting methods.

• Keywords: elektroenergetski sustav; upravljanje zagušenjima; prognoza zagušenja dan unaprijed; tokovi snaga
• Keywords (english): electric energy system; congestion management; day ahead congestion forecast; power flows
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:940717
• Study programme: Title: Electrical Engineering and Information Technology; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka elektrotehnike i informacijske tehnologije (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka elektrotehnike i informacijske tehnologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2020-01-07 22:07:56