Proračun osnovnih vjerojatnosnih veličina tehničkih sustava pomoću markovljevih procesa

scientific master's theses

• Title (english): Estimation of basic technical systems stochastic variables using Markov’s processes
• Author: Emil Vilenica
• Mentor: Vladimir Mikuličić (mentor)
• Committee member: Vjekoslav Filipović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vladimir Mikuličić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Srete Nikolovski (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2004, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

Dosadašnja uporaba Markovljevih procesa pri proračunu pokazatelja pouzdanosti tehničkih sustava uglavnom se ograničavala samo na korištenje matematičkog alata uz zadane ulazne podatke. Pritom se izbjegavalo naglašavanje aproksimacija i netočnosti kako na ulaznim podacima, tako i na samom modelu Markovljeva procesa, pa se samim time nije dobivalo potpuno razumijevanje o kvaliteti ulaznih podataka i same metode proračuna. Prema tome, potrebno je u potpunosti poznavati principe rada razmatranog sustava, prednosti i nedostatke primijenjene metode proračuna pokazatelja pouzdanosti sustava, kao i stvarno stohastičko ponašanje komponenata sustava. Zbog toga se primjena Markovljeva procesa opisuje s posebnim naglaskom na već spomenute nedostatke i aproksimacije, kako bi se stekla što bolja slika o kvaliteti dobivenih pokazatelja pouzdanosti sustava. Da bi se što bolje prikazao utjecaj ulaznih podataka, na osnovu statističkog skupa podataka koji oslikava stohastičku prirodu realne komponente pokazana je metoda nadomještanja stvarnih vjerojatnosnih veličina komponente sa teoretskim, te je izvršena ocjena kvalitete takvog nadomještanja. Opisom drugih učestalo korištenih analitičkih metoda i njihovom usporedbom sa primjenom Markovljeva procesa upotpunjava se slika o vrijednosti Markovljeva procesa kao analitičke metode proračuna pokazatelja pouzdanosti sustava.

Abstract (english)

Usually usage of Markov’s processes in estimations of reliability indices of technical systems was mainly restricted on usage of mathematical tool with preset input parameters. During usage of mathematical tools all approximations and incorrectness of input parameters as well as incorrectness of Markov’s processes model was not emphasized. So it was impossible to completely understand the quality of input parameters and calculation method. According to this, it is of a great importance to understand working principles of considered system, the pros and cons of used calculation method and real stochastic behaviour of system components. That is the reason why Markov’s processes are described with special emphasize on already mentioned approximations and incorrectness in get better picture about quality of estimation reliability indices of technical systems. In order to show influence of input parameters, substitute of real stochastic variables with theoretical ones, was performed based on statistical group of data which shows stochastic nature of real component. Describing other frequently used analytical methods and comparing them to the usage of Markov’s processes, the picture on Markov’s process value as analytical method for calculations of reliability indices of technical systems was completed.

• Keywords: Markovljev proces; pouzdanost; raspoloživost; učestalost prijelaza; vrijeme boravka; frekvencija nastupanja
• Keywords (english): Markov’s processes; reliability; availability; transition rate; duration of residing; frequency of encountering
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:867608
• Study programme: Title: Postgraduate master programme in electrical engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: Magistar znanosti elektrotehnike (Magistar znanosti elektrotehnike)
• Catalog URL: https://lib.fer.hr:8443/cgi-bin/koha/catalogue/detail.pl?biblionumber=29244
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: VI, 156 str. ; 30 cm
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2019-09-17 12:57:21