Vjerojatnosna analiza troškova prekida opskrbe električnom energijom

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Probabilistic cost analysis of electric energy consumption interruptions
• Author: Damir Šljivac
• Mentor: Vladimir Mikuličić (mentor)
• Committee member: Zdravko Hebel (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vladimir Mikuličić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Srete Nikolovski (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Slavko Krajcar (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Sejid Tešnjak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Energy and Power Systems); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2005-06-02, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering; Power Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

Disertacija prikazuje procjenu troškova prekida opskrbe potrošača tipa kućanstva, na temelju izravnog anketiranja potrošača. Pri tome je korišteno više metoda, a na temelju istraženih utjecaja niza čimbenika na proračunate troškove, poput karakteristika prekida opskrbe, te mišljenja i iskustva potrošača s prekidima opskrbe, za procjenu troškova prekida opskrbe tipa kućanstva izabrana je metoda pripremnih radnji. Troškovi prekida opskrbe potrošača potom su prilagođeni potrebama proračuna, utvrđivanjem Tipske krivulje štete potrošača za kućanstva, u ovisnosti o trajanju prekida opskrbe potrošača, Dodatno, procijenjeni su troškovi za jednog velikog industrijskog potrošača na području Slavonije metodom izravne procjene troškova.
Razvijen je program u Visual Basic jeziku, koji se temelji na Monte Carlo simulaciji s uzorkovanjem trajanja stanja. Posebno detaljno razvijen je algoritam za proračun trajanja sklapanja radi uspostave napajanja potrošačima na temelju kojeg je moguće precizno odrediti trajanje prekida opskrbe potrošača, o kojima izravno ovise i ukupni troškovi prekida opskrbe potrošača. Algoritam se temelji na znanju i iskustvu dispečera, te predstavlja pokušaj odražavanja stvarnih čimbenika koji mogu utjecati na trajanje prekida opskrbe potrošača. Pomoću razvijenog programa izvršena je detaljna vjerojatnosna analiza osnovnih pokazatelja pouzdanosti, a osobito troškova prekida opskrbe potrošača, te utvrđen utjecaj niza čimbenika na proračun očekivanih troškova prekida opskrbe potrošača i razdiobe tih troškova.

Abstract (english)

Thesis describes the evaluation of Customer Interruption Costs for residential sector, based on the direct customer survey. Several methods were used. Based on the examined effects of a number of factors on the evaluated costs, such as interruption characteristics, customer opinions and experiences of interruptions, Preparatory Action Method was chosen for evaluation of residential sector customer interruption costs. Neccessary modifications of customer interruption costs were performed by developing the residential Sector Customer Damage Function, dependening on the interruption duration. Additionally, customer interruption costs were evaluated by for a single large user in Slavonia region, using Direct Costs Estimate method. Visual Basic software was developed, based on Monte Carlo simulation with state duration sampling approach. Particularly detailed algorithm for calculation of swithching and restoration duration was developed, enabling the precise determination of customer interruption duration, on which total customer interruption costs are highly dependent. Algorithm is based on knowledge and experiences of system operators and represents an atempt in regarding the actual factors influencing on customer interruption duration. A detailed probability analysis of basic reliability indices and particularly customer interruption costs was performed using the developed software. The effects of a number of factors on customer outage costs and associated distributions were determined.

• Keywords: Troškovi prekida opskrbe potrošača; krivulje štete potrošača; Monte Carlo metoda; vremenski slijed zastoja; trajanje sklapanja; troškovna analiza pouzdanosti
• Keywords (english): Customer interruption costs; customer damage functions; Monte Carlo method; outage time sequence; switching duration; reliability cost/worth analysis
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:379783
• Study programme: Title: Doctoral study programme "Electrical Engineering and Computing"; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti, po-dručje tehničkih znanosti)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2019-07-03 07:25:06