Razvoj sustava mikropredikcija za ponavljajuća predviđanja

master's thesis

• Title (english): Creating a micropredictions oracle for repeated forecast tasks
• Author: Antonio Celinšćak
• Mentor: Mario Brčić (mentor)
• Committee member: Mario Brčić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mirjana Domazet-Lošo (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Nikica Hlupić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-07-05, Croatia

Abstract

Od početka vremena ljudi su pokušavali predvidjeti budućnost raznim tehnikama i vjerovanjima. Danas to rade korištenjem umjetne inteligencije i složenih matematičkih modela. Jedan od najnovijih pristupa predviđanju je sustav mikropredikcija koji je osmislio Peter Cotton. Autor za sustav mikropredikcija kaže da će s vremenom davati najbolja rješenja za djelić danas potrebne cijene. Sustav mikropredikcija sastoji se od mreže tokova podataka po kojoj putuju algoritmi koji pokušavaju riješiti probleme povezane s tim podacima. Svaki zadatak rješava se natjecanjem algoritama motiviranih nagradom, a natjecanja vodi i organizira o-stroj. Ovaj rad pokazuje izradu jednog o-stroja za zadatak predviđanja broja noćenja u skloništu u Calgaryju. U natjecanju sudjeluje šest različitih vrsta modela i cijeli sustav se testira različitim kombinacijama parametara da se dobe zaključci o njihovom utjecaju i o radu o-stroja.

Abstract (english)

Since the beginning of time, people have tried to predict the future with various techniques and beliefs. Today, they do this using artificial intelligence and complex mathematical models. One of the most recent approaches to forecasting is the microprediction system devised by Peter Cotton. The author of the microprediction system says that over time, it will provide the best solutions for a fraction of the price required today. A microprediction system consists of a network of data streams along which algorithms travel and attempt to solve problems associated with that data. A competition of prize-motivated algorithms solves each task, and the competitions are run and organized by Oracle. This paper demonstrates the creation of an Oracle to predict the number of overnight stays in a Calgary shelter. Six different types of models participate in the competition and the entire system is tested with varying combinations of parameters to draw conclusions about their effects and the operation of Oracle.

• Keywords: Mikropredikcije; o-stroj; predviđanje; mreža predviđanja; analiza podataka
• Keywords (english): Micropredictions; oracle; forecast; prediction web; data Analysis
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:761654
• Study programme: Title: Computing; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka računarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka računarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2024-10-12 20:16:40