Analiza i modeliranje rizika za projekte vjetroelektrana

scientific master's theses

• Title (english): Risk Analysis and Modeling for Wind Power Plant Projects
• Author: Filip Mužinić; VIAF: 305654921
• Mentor: Davor Škrlec (mentor)
• Committee member: Slavko Krajcar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Škrlec (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Stjepan Car (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Energy and Power Systems); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2006-12-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering; Power Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

Magistarski rad definira i analizira rizike koji se pojavljuju u projektima vjetroelektrana. Sektor vjetroenergetike se analizira koristeći svjetska iskustva, uz naglasak na Europsku uniju, budući da je Hrvatska upravo u procesu pregovora o pridruživanju. Pokretači i prepreke vjetroenergetike, globalni kao i hrvatski, su definirani i korišteni da bi se objasnili korijeni rizika u projektima vjetroelektrana. Prepoznate su zainteresirane strane u projektu i suprotstavljeni njihovi interesi (voditelji projekata, operatori sustava, investitori, proizvođači opreme, itd.). Nakon definiranja pojedinih projektnih rizika, izvršena je kvalitativna analiza rizika za projekte vjetroelektrana u Hrvatskoj. U Excelu je napravljen je model koji koristi Monte Carlo metodu za numeričku kvantitativnu analizu rizika. Rizici su modelirani prema utjecaju koji vrše na slijedeće financijske pokazatelje projekta: čista sadašnja vrijednost, interna stopa povrata i period povrata investicije. Konaèno, izvršena je analiza rizika za dva zamišljena projekta vjetroelektrana u hrvatskom tržišnom i političkom okruženju. Prikazane su razdiobe vjerojatnosti za rizike i za financijske pokazatelje. Rezultati su uspoređeni kako bi se naglasile koristi detaljne analize rizika u postupku odlučivanja.

Abstract (english)

Master thesis defines and analyses risks that occur in wind power plant projects. The wind energy sector is analysed using world experience and concentrating on European Union, as Croatia is currently in the process of accession negotiations. Movers and barriers of wind energy industry, global as well as Croatian, are defined and used to explain the roots of risks in wind power plant projects. Key players are recognized and their interests confronted (developers, utility, investors, equipment producers, etc.). Qualitative risk analysis for wind power plant projects in Croatia is done, after defining specific project risks. Excel based model is established using Monte Carlo method for numerical quantitative risk analysis. Risks are modelled according to their influence on following financial factors: net present value, internal rate of return and return on investment period. Finally, risk analysis is done for two imaginary wind power plant projects in Croatian market and political surroundings. Probability distributions for risks, as well as for financial factors are depicted. Results are compared to emphasise the benefits of detailed risk analysis in decision making procedure.

• Keywords: analiza rizika; kvalitativna; kvantitativna; vjetroelektrana; Monte Carlo metoda; model
• Keywords (english): risk analysis; qualitative; quantitative; wind power plant; Monte Carlo method; model
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:395625
• Study programme: Title: Postgraduate master programme in electrical engineering; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: Magistar znanosti elektrotehnike (Magistar znanosti elektrotehnike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2020-03-20 10:03:21