Metoda za kvantitativnu procjenu i upravljanje rizikom od terorizma za energetske sustave

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Quantitative terrorism risk assessment and management method for energy systems
• Author: Davor Šinka
• Mentor: Vladimir Mikuličić (mentor)
• Committee member: Vladimir Mikuličić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Energy and Power Systems); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2014, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering; Power Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

Energetski sustavi su atraktivne mete za terorističke napade, pa ih je nužno odgovarajuće štititi. Optimiranje zaštite tih sustava je složen zadatak, koji zahtijeva sistematičan pristup s mogućnošću obuhvaćanja svih relevantnih elemenata i uzimanja u obzir pripadajućih neodređenosti. Cilj istraživanja opisanog u disertaciji bio je unaprijediti proces odlučivanja o mjerama zaštite od terorističkih napada na energetske sustave. U okviru istraživanja provedena je detaljna analiza takvih napada poduzetih u periodu od 1996. do 2010. godine. Na osnovi rezultata analize, te uvažavajući dosege drugih relevantnih istraživanja, razvijena je metoda za kvantitativnu procjenu i upravljanje rizikom od terorizma namijenjena operaterima energetskih sustava. Metoda je koncipirana na način da se koriste isključivo podaci koji su javno dostupni. Zasniva se na vjerojatnosnoj analizi rizika, analizi statističkih podataka, analizi odlučivanja i teoriji igre, a realizirana je korištenjem Bayesovih mreža. Procjenu prijetnje je moguće provoditi temeljem podataka o poduzetim terorističkim napadima ili na osnovi sektorskih pokazatelja razine prijetnje. Upotrebljivost metode demonstrirana je primjenom na stvarnom energetskom sustavu u okviru projekta kojemu je svrha bila unaprijediti strategiju zaštite i sigurnosti. Pokazalo se da se dobiveni rezultati i uočeni fenomeni dobro slažu s onima iz drugih istraživanja. Na osnovi prikupljenih iskustava dane su smjernice za daljnji razvoj metode.

Abstract (english)

Energy systems are attractive targets for terrorist attacks and should be adequately protected. The optimization of the protection is typically a complex task, which requires a systematic approach with the ability to cover all the relevant elements and to take into consideration the associated uncertainties. The objective of the research was to improve the decision making process concerning the protection of energy systems from terrorist attacks. Within the scope of the research detailed analysis of such attacks carried out in the period from 1996 to 2010 was performed. Based on the obtained results and on the achievements of other researchers, the quantitative terrorism risk assessment and management method designated to the energy systems' operators was developed. The new method is realized by the implementation of Bayesian networks and allows to be used by utilizing the publicly available data only. It includes the components of the probabilistic risk analysis, statistical analysis, decision analysis and game theory. The threat assessment can be performed utilizing the statistical data on terrorist attacks or the threat level indicators. The applicability of the method was demonstrated by the implementation to the real energy system, within the project aimed to optimize the security strategy. It was shown that the results obtained and the phenomena observed are in good agreement with those from other studies. Based on the experience gathered, the directions for further development of the method were set.

• Keywords: procjena rizika; upravljanje rizikom; terorizam; energetski sustavi; zaštita; sigurnost; optimiranje; Bayesove mreže
• Keywords (english): risk assessment; risk management; terrorism; energy systems; protection; security; Bayesian networks
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:721900
• Study programme: Title: Electrical Engineering and Computing; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: Doktor znanosti elektrotehnike i računarstva (Doktor znanosti elektrotehnike i računarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 121 str. ; 30 cm.
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2019-04-16 16:22:09