Integralni model procjene utjecaja heterogenosti kućanstava na implementaciju politika energetske učinkovitosti

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Integral model for households heterogeneity impact estimation on the energy efficiency policies implementation
• Author: Marko Matosović
• Mentor: Željko Tomšić (mentor)
• Committee member: Željko Tomšić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing; (Department of Energy and Power Systems); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2018, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Electrical Engineering; Power Engineering
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 621.3 - Electrical engineering

Abstract

U okviru ovog rada razvijen je integralni model procjene utjecaja heterogenosti kućanstava na implementaciju mjera i politika energetske učinkovitosti. To podrazumijeva integralan, odnosno cjelovit model koji zaokružuje odnos između socio-ekonomskih karakteristika kućanstava i njihovog ponašanja te potrošnje energije u kućanstvu. Cilj takvog modela je kvantifikacija i pravilno razumijevanje interakcija između politike energetske učinkovitosti i ponašanja krajnjih korisnika te efekti tog odnosa na potrošnju energije. U okviru ovog rada opisana je metodologija, odnosno proces modeliranja potrošnje energije u sektoru kućanstava, koja obuhvaća određivanje referentnih parametara potrošnje energije u kućanstvima, opisivanje procesa odlučivanja i definiranje utjecaja karakteristika kućanstva na potrošnju energije. Proces odlučivanja opisan je kroz dva modela: logističkom regresijom te metodom diskretnog odabira. U nastavku rada razvijeni model primijenjen je u analizi studije slučaja za Hrvatsku. Rad završava analizom rezultata i diskusijom reperkusija koje rezultati imaju na kreiranje novih energetskih politika. Rezultati pokazuju snažnu ovisnost vjerojatnosti odluke o implementaciji mjera energetske učinkovitosti o mogućim uštedama koje ta mjera postiže i trošku same mjere, odnosno o vremenu povrata investicije. Istovremeno, kućanstva koja pripadaju nižim prihodovnim razredima pokazuju različite obrasce odlučivanja i korištenja energije od kućanstava koja pripadaju višim prihodovnim razredima. To se odražava na različitost potrošnje energije u tim kućanstvima kao i na različite odluke prilikom investiranja u mjere energetske učinkovitosti. Takvi ishodi upućuju na važnost uvažavanja heterogenosti sektora kućanstava prilikom modeliranja i analize potrošnje energije. Opisani pristup može se koristiti za kvalitetnije analize potrošnje energije i evaluaciju učinaka mjera energetske učinkovitosti na potrošnju energije u budućnosti. Isto tako, opisani pristup može se koristiti za procjenu troškovne učinkovitosti programa energetske učinkovitosti i korigiranju postojećih, dajući odgovor na pitanje koji je najmanji potreban iznos subvencije kako bi kućanstva smatrala tu investiciju poželjnom, odnosno koji je najmanji budžet potreban za subvencije kako bi tijelo ili institucija koje taj program vodi, postiglo željeni učinak u vidu ukupnih energetskih ušteda. Primijenjeni je pristup zanimljiv i koristan kako za javna tijela i institucije tako i za poslovne subjekte koji imaju interes ili obavezu poticati mjere energetske učinkovitosti u kućanstvima. U cilju je oba sektora maksimizirati troškovnu učinkovitost alokacije sredstava svojih budžeta uz dohvaćanje zadanih ciljeva potrošnje energije, a predloženi model upravo to omogućava.

Abstract (english)

Within this thesis, an integral model of the impact assessment of household heterogeneity on the implementation of measures and energy efficiency policies and energy consumption has been developed. This implies that it is a comprehensive model that combines the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of households and their behavior, and household energy consumption. The objective of such a model is to quantify and properly understand the interaction between the energy efficiency policy and end-user behavior and the effects of that relationship on energy consumption. The methodology described within this thesis, i.e. the process of modeling the energy consumption in the household sector includes the determination of the reference parameters of energy consumption in households, the description of the decision making process and the definition of the impact of the household energy consumption characteristics. The decision process is described with two models: logistic regression and discrete choice model. The developed model was used in case study analysis for Croatia. The thesis concludes by analyzing the results and discussing the repercussions that the results have on creating new energy efficiency policies. The results show a strong dependence on the probability of a decision that the energy efficiency measures are implemented, on the possible savings that this measure achieves at the expense of the measure itself or the time of the investment return. At the same time, households belonging to lower income classes show different patterns of decision making and the use of energy from households belonging to higher income classes. This is reflected in the diversity of energy consumption in these households as well as on various decisions when investing in energy efficiency measures. Such outcomes point to the importance of taking into account the heterogeneity of the household sector when modeling and analyzing energy consumption. The described approach can be used for improved energy consumption analysis and evaluation of the energy efficiency measurements on energy consumption in the future. Also, the approach described can be used to estimate the cost efficiency of an energy efficiency program and correct existing ones, giving the answer to the question of what is the minimum amount of subsidy needed to make households think this investment is desirable, that is, the smallest budget needed for subsidies so that the body or institution which the program leads, achieved the desired effect in terms of total energy savings. Applied approach is interesting and useful for public bodies and institutions as well as for businesses that have an interest or obligation to encourage energy efficiency measures in households. In order for both sectors to maximize the cost-effectiveness of allocation of their budget funds with the achievement of the energy consumption targets, and the proposed model just makes this possible.

• Keywords: energetsko planiranje; politike energetske učinkovitosti; odlučivanje potrošača; logistička regresija; metoda diskretnog odabira
• Keywords (english): energy planning; energy efficiency policy; consumer decision making; logistic regression; discrete choice model
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:168:788675
• Study programme: Title: Electrical Engineering and Computing; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: Doktor znanosti elektrotehnike i računarstva (Doktor znanosti elektrotehnike i računarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 145 str. ; 30 cm.
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2019-04-02 15:25:23